Dems Lose Faith As UMich Sentiment Expectations Dip In October

The final data for the UMich Sentiment survey in October surprised bigly to the upside (70.5 vs 69.0 exp vs 70.1 prior), notably above the 68.9 preliminary print as both current conditions and expectations sub-indexes both jumped significantly from their flash prints (but the latter dipped on a MoM basis)…

Source: Bloomberg

Inflation expectations tumbled to 2.7%…

Source: Bloomberg

…more or less in line with the general trend from the Conference Board’s inflation expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

The upcoming election looms large over consumer expectations.

Overall, the share of consumers expecting a Harris presidency fell from 63% last month to 57% in October.

Sentiment of Republicans, who believe that a Trump presidency would be better for the economy, rose 8% on growing confidence that their preferred candidate would be the next president.

In contrast, sentiment declined 1% for Democrats.

As usual, Independents remain in between, with a 4% gain in sentiment this month.

Source: Bloomberg

Regardless of the eventual winner, a sizable share of consumers will likely update their economic expectations based on the results of the election.