Poland’s Official Story About An Alleged Airspace Violation Doesn’t Add Up

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The authorities’ story doesn’t add up since they still maintain that at least three radiolocation stations recorded a violation, but they also claim at the same time that no such violation ever occurred.

Major General Maciej Klisz announced that Poland’s ten-day search for physical evidence of last month’s recorded airspace violation came up empty-handed. According to him,

“As a result of this process and the undertaken analysis, I can say that with high likelihood the air space of the Republic of Poland was not breached on August 26…(but the) data has not changed, what changed is our assessment of the situation.”

For comparison’s sake, here’s what he said on that same day late last month:

“We are probably dealing with the entry of an object on Polish territory. The object was confirmed by at least three radiolocation stations. It is clear from its characteristics that the object is not a missile, it is not a hypersonic, ballistic or guided missile.”

Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski then started talking tough about Poland possibly shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine, the subject of which was analyzed here.

Returning to Klisz’s remarks, it’s notable that he insisted that the “data has not changed”, thus meaning that Poland still maintains that at least three radiolocation stations recorded an airspace violation on 26 August, but they couldn’t discover any physical evidence inside of country. Nevertheless, he also flip-flopped by now concluding that Polish airspace wasn’t breached in the first place, which is contradictory. Notice that he’s not even speculating that a drone might have crossed in and out of Polish airspace.

If what he’s saying is true, then this means that Poland’s radiolocation stations are either malfunctioning or that Russia is somehow able to manipulate their signals, both scenarios of which are very concerning from the perspective of Polish national security. Another possibility is that debris from a Ukrainian air defense missile fell inside of Poland, but the authorities want to cover it up in order to not worsen bilateral relations and/or create a situation where more citizens sour on Polish aid to Ukraine.

The media should hold Klisz’s feet to the fire by pressing him and other officials to elaborate on his contradiction. They’re unlikely to get an answer, or whatever they receive might not directly address this, but it’s important that it’s not swept under the rug given the national security stakes involved. Poles and their NATO allies deserve to know whether Poland’s radiolocation stations are malfunctioning or being manipulated, or if a wayward Ukrainian air defense missile or its debris once again fell inside of Poland.

As it stands, this incident is already hugely embarrassing. Coming up empty-handed despite a ten-day search that covered 3,200 square kilometers from the air, 250 square kilometers on the ground, and analyzed satellite images of an area of 310 square kilometers where the object was likely to fall according to reports suggests that the full truth isn’t being shared. It also needlessly provoked panic among people who were duped into thinking that a Russian object supposedly violated Polish airspace.

Sikorski’s tough talk about possibly shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine is also revealed to have been political opportunism that was advanced on what’s now officially considered to be a false pretext. The authorities’ story doesn’t add up though since they still maintain that at least three radiolocation stations recorded a violation, but they also claim at the same time that no such violation occurred. It’s therefore incumbent on truly independent members of the press to get down to the bottom of this.