“It’s Not In The Bag”: Kamala Harris Trailing Biden, Hillary Clinton Vs. Trump At This Stage Of The Race

Despite her recent surge in momentum – which as we noted earlier this week (and since 2016) is due to massive oversampling, Vice President Kamala Harris finds herself in a tougher position than her Democratic predecessors – Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 – in terms of how she’s doing vs. Donald Trump at this stage in the race. Polling data reveals that Harris’s lead over Trump in national polls is slimmer than those held by Biden and Clinton at comparable points in their respective campaigns, The Hill reports.

According to the latest data from FiveThirtyEight, Harris currently holds 47 percent support against Trump’s 44 percent, a narrow 3-point lead with just 62 days left before Election Day. Comparatively, Biden was ahead of Trump by 7 points at this time in 2020, while Clinton enjoyed a 4-point lead in 2016.

The RealClearPolitics polling average paints a similar picture. It shows Harris leading Trump nationally by just 2 points. By this stage in 2020, Biden had a commanding 7-point lead over Trump, and Clinton led by 4 points in 2016.

Challenges Among Key Demographics

Harris is also facing challenges among key demographic groups compared to Biden in 2020. Although Harris has made gains with Black voters since becoming the Democratic nominee, a recent Suffolk University poll found her securing 76 percent of the black vote, compared to Biden’s 82 percent at the same point in his campaign. Clinton was even further ahead, winning 92 percent of black voters in 2016, according to Suffolk data. Meanwhile, Trump now has 12 percent of the black vote vs. 4 percent vs. Biden and Clinton.

The picture is similar among hispanic voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this week shows Harris leading Trump by 13 points among hispanic voters. However, Biden held a more substantial 20-point lead among hispanics in 2020, according to a Quinnipiac University poll, while Clinton led by 17 points in 2016.

These figures underscore the challenges Harris faces in rallying key segments of the Democratic base. “It’s not in the bag,” said Scott Tranter, director of data science at Decision Desk HQ. “She’s had a great six weeks, but I’m not betting the house.”

Gains Among Women and Battleground States

As expected, women love Kamala. An ABC/Ipsos survey released this week indicates Harris leading Trump 54 percent to 41 percent among women, a similar margin to what Clinton achieved in 2016. Harris’s recent polling gains with women have brought renewed energy to her campaign, especially as she narrows the gaps in key battleground states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

As far as battleground states go – in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, three states crucial to the 2020 outcome, Harris holds a narrow lead in polling averages maintained by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill. However, in Pennsylvania, her advantage is a razor-thin seven-tenths of a percentage point.

Democratic strategists are coping hard…

“Harris seems to still be on an upward trajectory,” said Christy Setzer, a Democratic strategist. “There’s plenty of time to get to and surpass Biden’s 2020 performance.”

Except, she’s not on an ‘upward trajectory’ Christy. In fact, it looks like Trump is the one with momentum despite the aforementioned oversampling.

FiveThirtyEight

Meanwhile, the latest from FiveThirtyEight has Trump with a 60.1% chance of winning the election…

Wow.

Trump’s lead widens in Nate Silver’s model.

🔴 Trump – 62%
🔵 Harris – 38%

Trump is now a bigger favorite to win the electoral college, than Harris is to win the popular vote. pic.twitter.com/XydCzEbRih

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) September 6, 2024

Democrats are concerned…

Yet, some Democratic insiders remain wary of the polling trends, given Trump’s various controversies and perceived weaknesses as a candidate. “If any Democrat says they’re not concerned between now and Nov. 5th, they’re lying,” said Democratic strategist and pollster Fernand Amandi, adding “The fact that Trump has been in self-sabotage, worst-candidate-ever mode and the polls still are as close as they are, is remarkable.“