WTI Extends Losses After Smaller-Than-Expected Crude Draw

Oil slipped for a second day, extending a bumpy run so far this month, with the market focusing on Libyan supplies, key technical indicators and US inventory data.

The outages in Libya have been countered by a broadly bearish undertone – leading top Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs. and Morgan Stanley to shave their price forecasts for next year.

API

Crude  -3.4mm (exp. -3mm)

Gasoline -1.86mm

Distillates -1.4mm

Cushing -486k

DOE

Crude  -846k (exp. -3mm)

Gasoline -2.2mm

Distillates +275k

Cushing -668k

US Crude stocks declined for the 8th week in the last 9 (but less than expected) as Gasoline inventories tumbled and Distillates built modestly…

Source: Bloomberg

The Biden admin added 745k barrels to the SPR last week (but net it was still a small draw in total stockpiles)…

Source: Bloomberg

That pushed the total US Crude stockpile down to its lowest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production dipped from record highs… but barely…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude prices extended their earlier losses after the smaller-than-expected crude draw…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s against this fragile backdrop that the OPEC+ cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia must choose whether to implement plans to start increasing output in October.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are scheduled to add 543,000 barrels a day during the fourth quarter, the first stage in restoring production halted in late 2022 to shore up prices.

Key members such as the United Arab Emirates appear eager to go ahead, seizing the chance to deploy idle capacity and regain relinquished market share. The Saudis have stressed the hikes can be “paused or reversed” as necessary.