Ukraine Faces Its Most Difficult Winter In History

Ukraine authorities are warning the population of an extremely difficult winter ahead, following Monday’s large-scale Russian aerial attack which targeted energy infrastructure in nationwide drone and ballistic missile strikes, impacting 15 out of 24 oblasts.

Strict electricity consumption restrictions have been imposed for at least weeks throughout the country, with Ivan Plachkov, President of the All-Ukrainian Energy Assembly, saying on a public broadcast that “The restrictions will be in place not only today. I think this will be for a week or two if there are no large-scale attacks.”

Recruitment sign of Ukraine’s Azov Brigade during a partial electricity blackout in the center of Kyiv earlier this summer, via AFP.

Plachkov said the aim of Monday’s attack, one of the largest ever aerial assaults of the war, was to impose a total blackout on Ukraine.

President Biden too suggested that this was the aim. He said while condemning the attacks, “I condemn, in the strongest possible terms, Russia’s continued war against Ukraine and its efforts to plunge the Ukrainian people into darkness.”

“Russia will never succeed in Ukraine, and the spirit of the Ukrainian people will never be broken,” he said further while discussing the “outrageous” attacks, which come against the backdrop of Kiev’s ongoing Kursk cross-border offensive.

He said that as a result the United States is “surging energy equipment to Ukraine to repair its systems and strengthen the resilience of Ukraine’s energy grid.” At least 80% of Ukraine’s energy capacity is already damaged and degraded (with some reports putting the figure at 90%).

It goes without saying that Ukraine’s energy grid was already weak and battered. RIA Novosti has cited a warning by Energy Minister German Galushchenko, who has described that power generation is likely to deteriorate to the point that this coming winter will be the hardest ever faced by Ukrainians in the country’s history.

Another energy official described, “There were strikes on distribution systems and power supply systems, including nuclear power plants. There was also a blow to the Kyiv HPP. There, too, the power equipment was partially damaged. Serious works are now being carried out. It is necessary to restore the scheme more reliably for the possibility of providing consumers in full.”

⚠ Confirmed: Metrics show internet connectivity levels have fallen in multiple regions of #Ukraine including Kyiv after a series of deadly Russian missile and drone attacks targeting energy infrastructure followed by emergency power shutdowns 📉 pic.twitter.com/PdSmrmRjVK

— NetBlocks (@netblocks) August 26, 2024

Already by early summer reports from Ukraine were calling the prospect of rebuilding damaged facilities too “daunting”. Politico described that already “in March Russia started targeting entire power plants, which take months to rebuild, instead of hitting easily replaceable energy transformers. Even worse, there is a shortage of parts needed to rebuild the destroyed power plants.”

Clearly this Russian strategy has continued amid what has become a war of attrition. Russian forces have even taken out hydro-electric plants in various parts of the country, and Zelensky has recently been warning that sensitive nuclear energy sites are coming under threat.