Russia Poised To Capture All Of Donetsk After Several Breakthroughs On Weakened Ukraine Lines

Despite a recent influx of more Western weapons, including some of the first US-made F-16 fighter jets having arrived in Kiev, Russian forces have made significant gains in the Donbas, specifically in the region west of Avidiivka, several media outlets have reported. 

Currently, Ukrainian troops are being encircled in the Pokrovsk direction, war maps show. Russia has further seized the entire Novoselivka Persha settlement, after a string of tactical successes over months of the new Kharkiv offensive.

Illustrative: Ukrainian troops patrolling, Via AFP

The Washington Post in fresh reporting documents that “The reinvasion of the Kharkiv region, while yielding limited gains, nonetheless diverted Ukrainian resources. Oleksandr, 30, a battalion commander of the 47th brigade, fighting near Ocheretyne, said that Ukrainian forces are struggling and that Putin’s prize increasingly seems within Russia’s reach.”

The same Ukrainian commander told the outlet, “This strategy is clever: You try to concentrate the strength of your enemy in one direction and then distract them at another.” He added of Russian forces, “Their first objective is to destroy us” and “the second is to push us so that they can get more leverage for peace talks and get more from us. They are almost at the point of capturing the Donetsk region.”

WaPo admits that this soon may see the Zelensky forced to negotiate or else quickly lose more territory as the Russians eye capturing the key transit point of the city of Pokrovsk. The publication also underscores a somewhat distracted Washington, referencing “a shortage of soldiers and as election turmoil in the United States.”

NEW: Russian forces recently made confirmed advances NE of Kharkiv City in Vovchansk, near Avdiivka, and SW of Donetsk City.

Ukrainian drones struck Russian energy and utility infrastructure in Oryol, Voronezh, and Belgorod oblasts on the night of July 28 to 29. 🧵(1/6) pic.twitter.com/nLu7JyQp30

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) July 30, 2024

Other major publications like The New York Times have confirmed a similar trend: Russia is identifying weakened and badly organized Ukrainian units to punch through front lines at a rapid pace, thus exploiting the ongoing severe manpower problems.

“Russian forces are now only a dozen miles from Pokrovsk after Moscow’s troops pushed along a railway line and advanced about three miles toward the city, according to open-source maps of the battlefield based on combat footage and satellite imagery,” writes NYT. “The Russian progress contrasts sharply with the slow but steady gains that Moscow had made so far this year in the Donetsk region, sometimes measured in only a few hundred yards a week.”

“Military analysts say the swift gains reflect Moscow’s improved ability to exploit cracks in Ukrainian defensive lines, which have been thinned by manpower shortages and strained by relentless Russian attacks along a more than 600-mile front,” the report continues.

A key question remains: even should Zelensky desire to negotiate with Moscow at this point, will he be able to?

Nazified extremists like Azov are useful as motivated killers for warfare, but a frankenstein’s monster when you need to switch to ceasefire/peace mode. Azov way too big now (and just one of many extreme-right military formations) to put back in the bottlehttps://t.co/zMjziZ5C3c

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) July 30, 2024

Again, despite efforts of Western supporters to rush new weapons systems to Kiev, it’s ultimately the manpower problem in the face of far superior Russian numbers that’s making all the difference.

As of Monday, the German government announced it has sent Ukraine eight more Leopard 1 A5 tanks, ammunition, anti-aircraft guns, and other equipment.