Beijing-Hosted Ukraine Peace Conference? Why Not…

China shunned the Switzerland-hosted peace talks attended by some 90 countries and which happened last week, however, the government of Xi Jinping has urgently called for an international peace summit hosted by Beijing. China’s rationale for skipping the Swiss summit was that the endeavor was futile without Russia’s presence.

Geng Shuang, China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, recently told the United Nations Security Council in New York, “China calls on the parties to the conflict to demonstrate political will, come together, and start peace talks as soon as possible to achieve a ceasefire and halt military actions.”

Geng ultimately put forth China as a better facilitator and mediator due to its “objectivity and impartiality” while at the same time accusing Washington of “spreading the lie that China has supported Russia in its war efforts”. Practically speaking, it is much more likely that Putin would send representatives to Beijing rather than Switzerland or a Western European nation for a summit.

“This is unacceptable … It is an attempt to divert people’s attention from the conflict and create differences,” he said further. The Chinese diplomat described that China “urges the US to stop using the Ukraine issue as an excuse to smear China and to impose unilateral sanctions and unreasonable suppression on Chinese companies.”

Indeed there was this interesting moment earlier this month where President Biden showed himself to be even more hawkish on the issue than Zelensky himself, despite the Ukrainian leader being in the thick of war…

Ominous moment at the G7 today. Zelensky says he had a personal phone conversation with President Xi, and Xi assured him that China will not give Russia weapons to use against Ukraine. Biden chimes in to semi-correct Zelensky, alleges that China “is in fact helping Russia” pic.twitter.com/Qil8XgM9GI

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 13, 2024

Beijing’s appeal for the world to look to China if it hopes to achieve peace in Ukraine is also interesting given that it provides Biden with an “out” of sorts ahead of what’s sure to be a tight election in November.

Achieving negotiated ceasefire in Ukraine, though it seems as distant as ever (given especially the Biden admin’s own uncompromising pro-Kiev policy), would without doubt be a political ‘win’ for Biden at a moment the Gaza war also shows no signs of stopping.

But the US is unlikely to get on board with this and will instead stick with the simple China equals ‘bad guy/bad actor’ narrative instead of a path of robust diplomacy and a pragmatic path forward. This despite the Zelensky government having for months urged that China play a key role in persuading Russia toward peace.

Putin himself days ago set forth his key conditions for ending the war… (it would end “this very minute” he said): that Ukraine forces withdraw from the four annexed territories, and that Kiev give up its aspirations to join the NATO alliance. 

But in the meantime all the White House can do is continue to verbally chide China and Russia (and with the occasional sanctions). But from Beijing’s perspective, whether Trump gets into the top office or Biden stays, it’s basically two sides of the same coin. “China Has No Favorite in Biden-Trump Race, US Intelligence Finds,” Bloomberg reported in a Thursday headline.

“US spies believe China’s leaders see little or no upside to the looming electoral showdown between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump,” the report said.

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“Ahead of next week’s first debate of the presidential campaign, US intelligence agencies assess that China has no clear preference between the two candidates, according to American officials, who asked not to be identified discussing non-public assessments,” Bloomberg wrote.