Polls Show Brazil’s High-Stakes Election On Knife’s Edge

While prior polling suggested Lula has maintained a clear, albeit narrow lead in Brazil’s bitterly fought presidential contest to decide the fate of the world’s fourth-largest democracy, Bloomberg cites a fresh poll Friday as follows: “President Jair Bolsonaro would have 50.3% of the so-called valid votes on Brazil’s presidential election on Oct. 30, while his opponent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva would have 49.7%, according to a Futura poll commissioned by Modalmais brokerage firm.”

In the second and the final round of a polarizing election to take place Sunday and what’s being called the most important in Brazil’s history, which could see the country of some 215 million swing toward Cuban or Venezuela-style socialism if Lula clinches it, FT reviews, “Lula, who was president of Brazil from 2003 to 2010, leads a broad coalition of the center and left that has united behind the idea that a second term for Bolsonaro would do irreversible damage to the country’s institutions and spur a slide towards strongman rule.”

AP/Getty Images

But, the report continues, “For Bolsonaro and his conservative supporters in agribusiness, the evangelical churches and the army and police, a Lula victory would set Brazil on the path towards the style of socialism in Cuba or Venezuela and erode traditional values.”

Bloomberg notes further of the above-mentioned poll results, “Futura was among the polling firms that got closest to capturing Bolsonaro’s actual support in the first- round vote on Oct. 2, but it undershot the Lula vote by over 4 percentage points.”

CNN this week has cited a separate, prior poll showing that it’s Lula who has maintained a narrow lead:

A Datafolha poll released last Wednesday showed 49% of respondents said they would vote for Lula da Silva and 45% would go for Bolsonaro, who gained a percentage point from a poll by the same institute a week ago.

The campaigning has been among the nastiest in modern history, with the two candidates and their supporters attacking each other almost daily – particularly since the October 2nd first round vote failed to produce a winner, with neither gaining the required over 50%. Sunday is the final run-off vote.

And more predictions amid the tight race…

EURASIA NOW SEES 65% ODDS OF LULA WINNING ELECTION, PRIOR 60%

This year has even seen dozens of violent clashes between supporters of the rival candidates, with the US non-profit Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recording “36 instances of political violence involving party representatives and supporters across the country,” that suggests “even greater tensions and polarization than recorded in the previous general elections.”

🇧🇷 – All eyes on Minas Gerais state ahead of second round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday
• Since 1889 candidate who has won state has, with one exception, won presidency
• Polls underestimated support for Bolsonaro in 1st round; all now suggest result will be close pic.twitter.com/KO0UW8MjQH

— Agathe Demarais (@AgatheDemarais) October 28, 2022

Fears of the potential for post-election violence have risen also given Bolsonaro in the last months has highlighted that the country’s electronic voting machines could be easily manipulated and tampered with, while calling on an independent military committee to ensure no fraud. Lula supporters have taken this to mean Bolsonaro is unlikely to accept defeat, leading to violent showdown to oust him from the Palácio do Planalto.