US Housing Starts Plunge As Homebuilder Confidence Crashes

With homebuilder confidence collapsing – especially expectations of future sales – housing starts and permits were expected to slide in September but the results were mixed…

US Housing starts plunged 8.1% MoM in September (worse than the -7.2% expected), but the forward-looking permits unexpectedly rose 1.4% MoM (-0.8% MoM exp) and August was revised to a slightly smaller drop.

Source: Bloomberg

On a SAAR basis, starts and permits continue their broad trend lower (with a tiny uptick in permits)…

Source: Bloomberg

The unexpected rise in permits is all due to multi-family units as renter-nation escalates: Single-family permits tumbled 3.1% MoM while multi-family permits soared 8.2% MoM…

On the other side, single family starts plunged 4.7% to 892K SAAR, the lowest since May 2020…

So, finally, as we started, what happens next for home starts? If homebuilders are that sanguine about future sales expectations why would they be building any more homes?

Source: Bloomberg

Is this what Powell wants? And what will this mean for home prices (less supply)?