2022 Republican Voters Being Undercounted Again: Trafalgar

A top independent pollster says Republican voters will be undercounted in the lead-up to the 2022 midterm elections next month – which will likely skew polls in favor of Democrats.

“These submerged voters aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yard—they’re not even posting on social media,” said Robert Cahaly, the head of the Trafalgar Group, in a Daily Wire podcast – noting that Republicans may not be inclined to reveal their political views after President Biden’s Sept. 1 speech targeting “MAGA Republicans.”

“They are underwater. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.“

Cahaly added that voters should not trust mainstream polls in the coming weeks – citing previous polls weighted towards Democrats.

“Polls have two purposes,” he said. “They’re either to reflect the electorate, or they’re to affect the electorate—and too many of these media and university-based polls are designed to affect the electorate and are trying to create a false narrative quite often when there’s not one.”

Cahaly made reference to the Biden speech in Philadelphia that accused supporters of former President Donald Trump of being a threat to U.S. institutions, coming just a few weeks after the FBI’s raid of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort. While he spoke in front of a dark red-lit background next to two Marines, Biden said Trump and his followers “represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations” of the United States. –Epoch Times

During the 2020 election cycle there were “hidden voters,” Cahaly wrote on Twitter several weeks ago.

“Now [the] Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them,” he said. “This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”

In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed”. This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022

In Nov. of 2020, Pew Research noted; “It’s clear that national and many state estimates were not just off, but off in the same direction: They favored the Democratic candidate.”

Pew added that polls “overestimated the Democratic advantage by an average of about 4 percentage points” in 2020. “When looking at national polls, the Democratic overstatement will end up being similar, about 4 points, depending on the final vote count.”

And in 2016, polls were also inaccurate and were biased in favor of Democrats, Cahaly argued.

“In 2016, Trump supporters were called ‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” Cahaly said on Twitter, referring to Hillary Clinton’s now-infamous “basket of deplorables” remark. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed, which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.” -Epoch Times

“National polls can misrepresent the electoral college, and statewide polls can obscure outcomes in congressional districts,” former GOP House Speaker Newt Gingrich wrote in the Epoch Times last month. “In early October 2016, Hillary Clinton was only ahead by 3 points nationally—and she was running up huge margins in California and New York (two of our four most populous states). The media believed she would be the next president. But she didn’t have the advantage in the heavily contested states (which meant she wasn’t winning the electoral college).”