The CBO Projects That By 2043, US Deaths Will Exceed Births

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Starting 2043 it will take net immigration to prevent the US population from declining…

Please consider the Congressional Budget Office Demographic Outlook: 2022 to 2052

Population. In CBO’s projections, the population increases from 335 million people in 2022 to 369 million people in 2052, expanding by 0.3 percent per year, on average. (In this report, population refers to the Social Security area population—the relevant population for the calculation of Social Security payroll taxes and benefits. The population is also projected to become older, on average, as growth in the number of people age 65 or older outpaces that of younger age groups. 

Components of Population Growth. Population growth is projected to slow over the next 30 years. As fertility rates remain below the replacement rate (the fertility rate required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration), population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration flows. 

Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population. The civilian noninstitutionalized population grows, in CBO’s projections, from 264 million people in 2022 to 298 million people in 2052. (This measure of the population includes only people age 16 or older. The agency uses it to project the size of the labor force.) The prime working age population (ages 25 to 54) grows at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent over that period, slower than its average over the 1980–2021 period (1.0 percent). 

Changes Since Last Year. In CBO’s current projections, the population is smaller and grows more slowly, on average, than CBO projected last year. Fertility rates are expected to be lower than the agency projected last year, reducing the size and growth of the population that is under 24 years old over the 30-year projection period. In addition, as a result of new information about the effects of COVID-19, CBO increased projected mortality rates for people age 65 or older, on average, in the first two decades of the projection period.  

Looking Ahead Demographically 

Aging persons tend to spend less and travel less as the years pass. But they need more health care and it’s expensive.  

Yet, there will be fewer people working and paying taxes to support each retiree.

Neither Social Security nor Medicare was created to withstand the cliff event that’s coming when all the boomers retire. 

Once Boomers are gone from Congress It will be interesting to see what Millennials and Zoomers do with the mess they inherited. 

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