NatGas Prices Near Breakout Level Ahead Of Cold Blob Invasion

US natural gas futures are up 2.5% in late afternoon trading, reaching $2.98 per mmBtu, driven by new forecasts showing a shift in cold weather from the West Coast to the East next week. This suggests households may crank up their thermostats for the first time this season as a proper chill sets in. 

Private weather forecaster BAMWX published a new mid-day GEFS run for late November that shows “massive cold trends” for the eastern half of the US. 

“The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead,” BAMWX wrote on X, adding, “Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential.” 

Massive colder trends on the mid-day GEFS run for late November. The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead.

Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential. #Energy #NatGas #OOTT $ng $ung pic.twitter.com/UpJ5pT44t8

— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) November 13, 2024

Meteorologist Ryan Kane wrote on X, “It’s safe to say next weeks ULL will be the big pattern changing system (Nov 20-23rd). Nice -EPO, +PNA & -NAO will all work to drive cold into the eastern half of CONUS.”

“Snow potential should come Thanksgiving week as the -NAO attempts to break down as the cold air is established,” Kane noted. 

It’s safe to say next weeks ULL will be the big pattern changing system (Nov 20-23rd). Nice -EPO, +PNA & -NAO will all work to drive cold into the eastern half of CONUS. Snow potential should come thanksgiving week as the -NAO attempts to break down as the cold air is established pic.twitter.com/thWrHJDSZZ

— Ryan Kane (@ryankanerWX) November 13, 2024

BAMWX said the pattern shift to much cooler temps in the interior Northeast could produce ripe conditions for snow next week. 

❄SNOW CHANCES ARRIVING AROUND THANKSGIVING?

For several days now, we’ve been mentioning the pattern changing with cooler temperatures arriving for the end of November/start of December.

With the cooler temperatures, comes the possibility of winter precipitation👀

Now… snow… pic.twitter.com/ZPQEy24iqB

— Kirk 🇺🇸 Hinz | BAM ⚡️Weather (@Met_khinz) November 12, 2024

Here’s what other meteorologists are saying…

Euro Ens (upgraded) showing a strong signal for wintery mischief here in the Mid Atlantic going into Thanksgiving week. 👇 It even has a little snow in the Baltimore Metro. Take that with a grain of rock salt, but all of the long-range modeling is seeing the cold air. Stay tuned pic.twitter.com/pwvsoKiJs7

— Tony Pann (@TonyPannWBAL) November 13, 2024

eye candy euro control with Thanksgiving week snowstorm in interior east pic.twitter.com/VYm3V0Vn6Q

— The American Storm (@BigJoeBastardi) November 8, 2024

Back to NatGas fundamentals, here’s the latest data (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Weather:

• Forecasts shifted cooler for parts of the West Coast with colder temperatures moving eastward later in the Nov. 18-22 period: Maxar

• See WHUT for a map of latest 6-10 day weather forecast: NOAA * Click here for two-week temperature forecasts for the US

Storage:

• Gas inventories probably rose 39 bcf last week, based on median of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg

• Five-year average gas inventory change for week ended Nov. 8 is +29 bcf

• Stockpiles totaled 3.932 tcf as of Nov. 1, 5.8% above the five-year average

• EIA to report weekly storage data at 10:30am New York time on Thursday

Daily BNEF Gas Data:

• Lower-48 dry gas production on Wednesday ~100.4 bcf/day, or -5.2% y/y

• Lower-48 total gas demand ~81.7 bcf/day, or -3.1% y/y

• Dry gas exports to Mexico ~6.5 bcf/day, or -2% w/w

• Estimated gas flows to LNG export terminals ~13.7 bcf/day, or +1.5% w/w

Maybe a cold blast in the Northeast and other parts of the US will be the catalyst to push NatGas futures past the $3 mark, which has served as strong resistance for nearly two years.

In mid-August, the 208th edition of the Farmers’ Almanac published the “Wet Winter Whirlwind.” It noted, “There will be a lot of precipitation and storms”—all dependent on location.” 

And this: NatGas Bulls Rejoice: Colder Winter Lower 48 Forecasts May “Place Upward Pressure” On Prices