Rafael To Strengthen Into Hurricane As US Gulf Energy Complex On High Alert

Tropical Storm Rafael was churning 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, early Tuesday. It had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and was moving northwest at 13 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm’s crosshairs are set on an area of the US Gulf Coast, home to offshore oil/gas rigs and onshore refineries.

“Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba,” NHC wrote in an update, adding, “The storm is currently situated in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that is quite conducive for strengthening.” 

NHC’s cone of uncertainty shows that Rafael will pass the Cayman Islands on Tuesday night and will be near western Cuba on Wednesday. Impacts on the US Gulf Coast are forecasted for late week. 

Mike’s Weather Page posted computer models that show the storm’s trajectory possibly “hooking and turning faster” by the weekend into the Southeastern US. 

Latest Rafael spaghetti models. Some hooking and turning faster. Some drifting and hooking later. Timestamps here from the NHC show winds weakening. Could still be some along the upper Gulf, especially if arrives quicker/faster. https://t.co/Hk3pbO7x8H pic.twitter.com/FNSDGcoBMu

— Mike’s Weather Page (@tropicalupdate) November 5, 2024

The latest federal data shows this area of the Gulf Coast had 48 offshore oil and gas rigs, 27 of which were actively marketed and contracted, with a utilization rate of 77.1%. The Gulf Coast accounts for approximately 15% of all domestic oil production and 2% of natural gas output. There are major onshore refineries in the storm’s projected path.

On Sunday, we first reported the tropical disturbance in a note titled “Models Show Caribbean Disturbance Threatens US Gulf Energy Complex.” 

For now, Rafael’s trajectory and intensity should be closely monitored as computer models are still subject to change.