Trump Election Odds Near 67% As Polymarket Whale Bets Another $2M

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

Former United States President Donald Trump’s lead on the top blockchain-based betting market is nearing 67% as a mysterious whale continues to bet on his victory in the upcoming presidential election on Nov. 5.

Trump’s odds of winning the election surpassed 66.3% on the leading decentralized predictions market on Oct. 28, according to Polymarket data.

Presidential election winner 2024, one-month chart. Source: Polymarket

Trump’s odds increased after a Polymarket whale, or large holder, invested another $2 million worth of USD Coin USDC$1.00 tokens into pro-Trump bets.

The mysterious whale has spent $7.22 million on “Yes” shares, according to onchain intelligence firm Lookonchain, which wrote in an Oct. 28 X post:

“Since Oct 11, the whale has spent 7.22 million $USDC to buy 11.28 million ‘Yes’ shares on Donald Trump winning the US election, with an unrealized profit of $256,000.”

With only seven days until the 2024 US presidential election, decentralized prediction markets may offer more accurate predictions than traditional polling systems, according to billionaire Elon Musk.

The Polymarket odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points, Cointelegraph reported.

Mysterious Polymarket whale seems unrelated to “Fredi9999”

The mysterious Polymarket whale, known as “zxgngl,” holds over 11.2 million “Yes” votes worth over $7.5 million, according to Polymarket data.

Zxgngl, Polymarket whale, positions. Source: Polymarket

The increasing positions come after the top Trump bettor on Polymarket, “Fredi9999,” bolstered Trump’s odds above 60.2% by buying over $20 million worth of “Yes” shares up to Oct. 18.

Moreover, Fredi’s transaction patterns suggest that it controls four of the six largest Trump-voting accounts on Polymarket, all funded with Kraken deposits.

Leading Trump bettors. Source: PolyMarket

While 99% of zxgngl’s bets were also placed on Trump, their account was funded by Binance, not the Kraken exchange. Their transaction patterns are also different, with the last two Binance deposits being worth $338,000 and $1.68 million, respectively.

Zxgngl, Polymarket deposits. Source: Lookonchain

As for Fredi, the account is likely controlled by a person with deep confidence in a Trump victory, according to pseudonymous political bettor Domer, who told Cointelegraph:

“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”

US presidential elections fuel 565% prediction market growth

The upcoming US elections have boosted investor interest in prediction markets.

The betting volume on prediction markets rose over 565.4% in the third quarter to reach $3.1 billion across the three largest markets, up from just $463.3 million in the second quarter.

Top three crypto prediction markets. Source: CoinGecko

This significant third-quarter growth is mainly attributed to the US elections, according to an Oct. 14 CoinGecko report.

Polymarket, the most prominent decentralized betting platform, dominated the market with over a 99% market share as of September.