If Russia Takes Pokrovsk The Rest Of Eastern Ukraine Will Fall

After many months of propaganda from the western media asserting that Russia’s military capacity had been shattered by the brutal “meat grinder” of the Ukraine front, it appears that the Kremlin is actually accelerating their offensive with more troops and artillery than ever.  And, they are poised to take all of the Donbas and large portions of Eastern Ukraine if they succeed in the pivotal city of Pokrovsk. 

For the majority of the war Pokrovsk has acted as the logistical hub and rear operations base for Ukraine’s eastern defensive lines.  It sits astride both a key railroad juncture and the highway to Ukraine’s fourth-largest metro, Dnipro.  The city’s defensive positions are a final obstacle to Russia’s access to most of the region.  If Pokrovsk falls Russian forces will be able to easily flank entrenched troops in the north and south of the country.

The loss of the primary rail lines and highway routes in and out of Pokrovsk would cut resources to Ukrainian units across the Donbas and possibly force them to retreat before running out of supplies.  This would mean an immediate and sweeping Russian advance all along the eastern lines.  Where Putin goes from there is hard to say, but a campaign back into Western Ukraine, this time using attrition tactics, would not be unthinkable.  

Pokrovsk is, interestingly, valuable for another reason that’s not immediately apparent:  It acts as high ground in a nation of lowlands, and high ground allows for more effective use of drones because the signals travel further and are harder to jam with electronic interference.

Even the Kyiv Independent has published a worried analysis of the situation, though they assert the fall of Pokrovsk would not affect Ukraine’s overall war footing.  Citing a military analyst they admit: 

“The further the Russians advance, the more they unlock the entire front line to move, the more resources it will take for the Ukrainians to contain…”  “Ukraine’s ability to tackle its manpower and ammunition shortages will determine Pokrovsk’s fate, which in turn will depend on Kyiv’s priorities. Losing the city would be a logistical blow for Ukraine, threatening the defense of other Donbas cities…”  

They also admit that Zelensky’s stated plan of using the Kursk offensive to force Russia to slow their activities in the Donbas had failed.  Russia has gained more ground in the east since Kursk was contained, not less: 

“Contrary to the president’s claim, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi acknowledged that despite over 30,000 Russian soldiers being transferred to Kursk Oblast from other fronts, Russia “is only increasing its forces” in the Pokrovsk sector…” 

Far-left outlet CNN has, surprisingly, admitted to the dire nature of the situation and reported on the rising problem of deserting soldiers near Pokrovsk: 

“Two and half years of Russia’s grinding offensive have decimated many Ukrainian units. Reinforcements are few and far between, leaving some soldiers exhausted and demoralized. The situation is particularly dire among infantry units near Pokrovsk and elsewhere on the eastern front line, where Ukraine is struggling to stop Russia’s creeping advances… 

CNN spoke to six commanders and officers who are or were until recently fighting or supervising units in the area. All six said desertion and insubordination are becoming a widespread problem, especially among newly recruited soldiers…” 

This tone is a far cry from CNN’s pro-Ukraine cheerleading a few months ago, which means the situation must be even worse than is being reported openly.  Ukraine is conscripting convicted criminals and putting them in the trenches in Pokrovsk in order to fill manpower shortages; a policy which Russia was once criticized for.

Russian forces are currently engaged in at least eight offensives across the east and they are within three miles of Pokrovsk; that’s spitting distance for their artillery and guided FAB munitions.  Their strategy so far has been to encircle urban centers and slowly squeeze Ukrainian defense units out, which means the battle for Pokrovsk may not be decided for many weeks.   

The timing of the battle is no mistake, however.  It would appear Putin is intent on securing the city and the Donbas before the US elections in November, just as Zelensky’s Kursk operation was designed to disrupt Russian advances before November.  Both sides are preparing contingencies regardless of who enters the Oval Office in 2025.