Tonight’s Trump-Harris Debate Critical For Kamala As Post-Biden Bump Stalls Out

Tonight, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will face off in their first and only scheduled debate at 9PM ET on ABC News. There will be no live audience and no opening statements according to the rules released by the network last week. Harris and Trump won’t be able to ask each other questions.

The candidates will each have two minutes to answer questions, two minutes for rebuttals, and an additional minute for follow-ups and clarifications. While microphones will be muted when a candidate isn’t speaking, the Harris campaign said they were offered assurances that mics may be unmuted if there is significant crosstalk between candidates.

The debate is critical for Harris – whose post-Biden surge in polling has stalled out over the past week, while Trump’s odds continue to climb in both national polls and betting markets.

🚨 BREAKING – Trump GAINS AGAIN in Nate Silver’s election model

WIN ODDS:
🔴 Trump: 64.4% (+29.1)
🔵 Harris: 35.3%

TRUMP SWING STATE ODDS:
🔴 WISCONSIN: 53.4%
🔴 MICHIGAN: 54.9%
🔴 NEVADA: 60.8%
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: 64.9%
🔴 GEORGIA: 68.9%
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: 76.2%
🔴 ARIZONA: 76.6%… pic.twitter.com/4Kbvf7Jtsp

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 9, 2024

Trump’s lead is back up to 8% in the odds.

Will they go up or down after tonight’s debate? pic.twitter.com/RuOD1evWHc

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) September 10, 2024

Over the weekend the Harris campaign released a set of policy proposals which focused heavily on economic plans. Notably, economic policy is a key issue with voters where Trump holds a lead over Harris, according to Morgan Stanley.

Goldman Opines on Congressional Control

According to Goldman Sachs’ Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa, the US is in a closely contested battle for control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives ahead of the November elections. The Senate playing field currently favors Republicans, who are polling ahead in enough races to secure a narrow 51-seat majority. Key to this outcome is the state of Montana, where Republicans hold a slight lead. Prediction markets indicate a 74% chance that Republicans will control the Senate, although the possibility of a split 50-50 Senate remains, with the vice president holding the tie-breaking vote.

In the House, control remains highly uncertain. While Democrats hold a 2.5-point lead in national generic ballot polling and prediction markets suggest a 62% chance of a Democratic majority, seat-by-seat analyses still lean slightly toward the Republicans. The outcome could hinge on a few highly competitive districts, making the race for the House one of the closest in recent memory.

Overall, the congressional elections present a highly competitive landscape, with both chambers’ control hanging in the balance as voters prepare to head to the polls in November.