Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs – Up 20% Since Biden Elected

The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM in May – the smallest change since July 2022 – just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) – but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now…

Source: Bloomberg

Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM…(Gasoline prices tumbled 3.6% in May from April, one key reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month. )

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp). That is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.

Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in May and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.

May Shelter inflation 5.41% YoY, down from 5.55% in April and lowest since April 2022

May Rent inflation 5.30% YoY, down from 5.44% and lowest since May 2022

For context on how important housing costs are to US inflation data, the shelter index rose 5.4% over the last year, making up over two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.

Source: Bloomberg

It does make one wonder were exactly the BLS is getting their BS OER data from…

This is how much of a downside buffer core CPI has: real time rents are flat/negative while BLS reports OER at +5.6%. This will provide an inflation cushion for the next 18 months pic.twitter.com/PtFt8MsCxD

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 12, 2024

The full breakdown…

Services INflation remains awkwardly stuck above 5% while Goods DEflation is at its weakest since January 2004…

Source: Bloomberg

SuperCore CPI fell 0.05% MoM – its first drop since Sept 2021, but that left the YoY level still above 5.0%…

Source: Bloomberg

Transportation Services costs tumbled MoM to drag SuperCore lower MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden’s term began (July 2022 and May 2024 was the closest with ‘unchanged’), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump’s term).

And prices have never been more expensive…

That is an average of 5.4% per annum (almost triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump’s term).

Source: Bloomberg

Since President Biden was elected, food prices at home are up around 21% and food prices away from home are up almost 23%…

And while the Biden administration will continue to gaslight voters with comments like “inflation is tumbling”… every man, woman, and child who actually buys food knows prices have NEVER been higher…

Finally, while the ‘flations’ have broadly tracked M2 lower, we note that M2 YoY is now starting to turn back higher once again…

Source: Bloomberg

Will the next President and Fed head face a 70s redux?

Source: Bloomberg

And is this guaranteed if Powell decides “insurance” cuts are required (for Biden?)