Germany May Stave Off Worst Of Energy Crisis As Mild Temps Forecast Through Mid-November

Germany’s national weather service, the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), released a new report Friday showing temperatures across the country will be well above average through mid-November. This promising forecast could stave off a worsening energy crisis (for now). 

DWD’s month-ahead forecast expects warmer-than-normal temperatures in Germany through at least mid-November. A weather model via Bloomberg shows above-average weather. 

A two-week forecast shows heating demand across the EU’s largest economy will be below a 30-year trend line. This means less natural gas will be drawn out of storage. 

Regarding NatGas storage, the EU is about 91% full despite reduced NatGas shipments from Russia. Shipments via Ukraine are one of the last remaining Russian supply lines to western Europe after the bombing of Nord Stream pipelines.

Warmer weather plus EU storage is above a 10-year average for this time of year is good news (for now). 

Dutch front-month gas futures, a European benchmark, has been halved and hit lows not seen since June of around 113 euros per megawatt-hour. 

As for now, a worsening energy crisis has been delayed. But as explained recently by Russian energy giant Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller, all of that can change in the event of a cold snap and send “entire towns freezing” this winter.