Ratio Of Full- And Part-Time Workers Spells Inflation Peak

By Vincent Cignarella, Bloomberg markets live commentator and reporter

Is the US at full employment and we just don’t know it yet?

The ratio of full-time workers to part-time workers is at a near 20-year high. It may be turning, and a drop in the ratio may spell peak inflation as companies adjust to cut costs. That’d mean a better environment for stocks and bonds going forward.

If the ratio falls, it likely means companies are either looking to replace higher paid full-time workers with less expensive part-time employees or they are seeing declining sales. Either way, it is a sign of rising costs and an attempt to lower them or a slowing economy.

Both scenarios could prompt a Fed pivot. A slowing economy and peaking inflation are the signs the Fed needs to see in order to pause rate hikes.