Conference Board Confidence Tumbles As ‘Hope’ Hits 9-Year-Low

While many other sentiment measures are breaking below COVID lows (UMich at multi-decade record lows), The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure has somehow managed to hold things together with Present Situation sentiment seemingly defying the gravity of the shitshow that many Americans are facing in the real world. The headline print fell more than expected (from 98.4 to 95.7 (97.0 exp) driven by – as we suggested – a slap back to reality for ‘Present Situation’ which plunged from 147.2 to 141.3. Expectations also slipped further in July (from 66.4 to 65.3)…

Source: Bloomberg

While the headline remains above COVID lows albeit at its lowest level since Feb 20921 (and Present Situation remains completely blind to reality still), this is the lowest ‘Expectations’ print since March 2013.

“Concerns about inflation — rising gas and food prices, in particular — continued to weigh on consumers,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement.

“Looking ahead, inflation and additional rate hikes are likely to continue posing strong headwinds for consumer spending and economic growth over the next six months,” she said.

Who can blame Americans for being un-confident, our adjusted US Misery Index is at its worst level since Jimmy Carter was president…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps President Biden’s record low approval rating (despite the recent drop in gas prices) is more broad-based than the administration cares to admit.