Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slowed (Marginally) In May

Analysts expected Case-Shiller Home Price acceleration to slow modestly in May (the latest available data in this heavily lagged and smoothed data set) and they were right but the slowdown is still almost comedic.

The 20-City Composite index rose 1.32% MoM (less than the +1.50% exp) and is up ‘just’ 20.50% YoY (down from 21.22% YoY in April). The headline national average price index rose 19.75% YoY in May…

Source: Bloomberg

For some context, the 20-City Composite Home Price Index has not had a down-month since – drum roll please – March 2012.

“Despite this deceleration, growth rates are still extremely robust, with all three composites at or above the 98th percentile historically,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in statement

“Mortgage financing has become more expensive as the Federal Reserve ratchets up interest rates, a process that was ongoing as our May data were gathered,” he added. 

“Accordingly, a more-challenging macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer.”

Tampa, Miami, Dallas reported highest year-over-year gains among 20 cities surveyed

Finally, we note that between soaring rates and home prices, affordability has reached near record lows. In fact the last time ‘affordability’ was here was June 2006…

Source: Bloomberg

Which perfectly top-ticked the last housing price bubble.