Philly Fed Expectations Plunge As Prices Paid Hit 43 Year High

The mainstream headlines crowed that this morning’s Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey printed 27,4, almost double expectations, but below the surface things were not quite a ‘bullish’ as the headlines sound.

Following Empire Fed’s plunge, Philly Fed surged from 16.0 to 27.4, against expectations of a small drop to 14.5…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest difference between the two surveys… ever…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, bear in mind that while some factors were supportive in the Philly Fed survey, expectations for business in the next six months tumbled back near post-COVID lows while prices paid soared to their highest since 19769…

Source: Bloomberg

If that’s not a stagflation expectation, we don’t know what is.